β Premier League 2022-23 Β· Sat, Oct 29, 04:30 PM UTC Β· ref: J. Brooks
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Fulham win | 42% | 39% | 2.33 | fair |
| Everton win | 30% | 23% | 3.27 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 38% | 3.49 | value: +32% |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Everton β0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Fulham β0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 51% | 45% | 1.92 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 55% | 2.00 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 13 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand