← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 39% | 40% | 2.54 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 31% | 38% | 3.18 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 30% | 22% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace −0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Everton −0.25 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 60% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 40% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Dominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton |
| 63' | ⚽ | Anthony Gordon · Everton |
| 68' | 🟨 | James Tarkowski · Everton |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Schlupp · Crystal Palace |
| 68' | 🟨 | Marc Guéhi · Crystal Palace |
| 68' | 🟨 | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 70' | 🟨 | Demarai Gray · Everton |
| 80' | 🟨 | Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace |
| 84' | ⚽ | Dwight McNeil · Everton |
| 90' | 🟨 | James Garner · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 294.00 | 478.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 1.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1540.79 | 1615.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.05 | 8.85 |
| eye test v1 | -1.38 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.69 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| league points | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 2.81 | 3.78 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.05 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 0.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.15 | 26.74 |
| state index | -0.39 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 299.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |