← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Kavanagh
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Chelsea win | 54% | 29% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 58% | 3.78 | value: +118% ⚠ |
| Crystal Palace win | 20% | 13% | 4.83 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Crystal Palace +0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Chelsea +0.75 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 68% | 1.92 | value: +30% ⚠ |
| Over | 49% | 32% | 2.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand