← Premier League 2022-23 · Fri, Sep 16, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 37% | 43% | 2.64 | value: +14% |
| Nott'm Forest win | 35% | 29% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.49 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham +0 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Nott'm Forest +0 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 46% | 1.92 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 54% | 2.00 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Taiwo Awoniyi · Nott'm Forest |
| 27' | 🟨 | Steve Cook · Nott'm Forest |
| 34' | 🟨 | Willy Boly · Nott'm Forest |
| 40' | 🟨 | Issa Diop · Fulham |
| 54' | ⚽ | Tosin Adarabioyo · Fulham |
| 57' | ⚽ | João Palhinha · Fulham |
| 58' | 🟨 | João Palhinha · Fulham |
| 60' | ⚽ | Harrison Reed · Fulham |
| 63' | 🟨 | Kenny Tete · Fulham |
| 77' | ⚽ | Lewis O'Brien · Nott'm Forest |
| 78' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| Andreas Pereira · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 380.00 | 442.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1707.11 | 1762.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.28 | 16.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 2.11 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| league points | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 13.21 | 13.21 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.71 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | -1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.83 | 28.59 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | -1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 174.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |