← Premier League 2021-22 · Thu, May 19, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Aston Villa win | 47% | 35% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 36% | 3.50 | value: +24% |
| Burnley win | 25% | 30% | 4.10 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Burnley −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Aston Villa −0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 53% | 41% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 59% | 2.12 | value: +25% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 13 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 20 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand