← Premier League 2021-22 · Thu, May 19, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 52% | 34% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 36% | 3.54 | value: +26% |
| Crystal Palace win | 21% | 31% | 4.80 | value: +47% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Everton −0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Crystal Palace −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 62% | 1.66 | value: +3% |
| Over | 41% | 38% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace |
| 32' | 🟨 | Will Hughes · Crystal Palace |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jordan Ayew · Crystal Palace |
| 36' | ⚽ | Jordan Ayew · Crystal Palace |
| 54' | ⚽ | Michael Keane · Everton |
| 67' | 🟨 | Michael Keane · Everton |
| 69' | 🟨 | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 75' | ⚽ | Richarlison · Everton |
| 82' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Everton |
| 85' | ⚽ | Dominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 138.00 | 322.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.36 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1536.43 | 1604.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.65 | 3.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.60 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| league points | 36.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 30.80 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 4.14 | 4.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.25 | 1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.46 | 26.86 |
| state index | 0.05 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.46 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 299.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |