← Premier League 2021-22 · Sun, May 15, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 50% | 45% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.64 | value: +10% |
| Brentford win | 23% | 25% | 4.32 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Everton −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Brentford −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 46% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 54% | 2.02 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Mads Bech Sørensen · Brentford |
| 10' | ⚽ | Dominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton |
| 18' | 🟥 | Jarrad Branthwaite · Everton |
| 27' | 🟨 | Christian Nørgaard · Brentford |
| 37' | ⚽ (og) | Séamus Coleman · Brentford |
| 40' | 🟨 | Kristoffer Ajer · Brentford |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Richarlison · Everton |
| 62' | ⚽ | Yoane Wissa · Brentford |
| 64' | ⚽ | Rico Henry · Brentford |
| 88' | 🟥 | Salomón Rondón · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days |
| 134.00 |
| 1322.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.36 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1547.01 | 1586.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.83 | 31.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.30 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.77 |
| league points | 36.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 32.60 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 3.86 | 8.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.02 | -0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.21 | 26.25 |
| state index | 0.28 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.30 | -1.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| travel km | — | 282.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |