← Premier League 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brooks
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Aston Villa win | 68% | 72% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 17% | 5.19 | fair |
| Norwich win | 12% | 11% | 8.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Aston Villa −1.25 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Norwich −1.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 58% | 50% | 1.66 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 50% | 2.37 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand