← Premier League 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 23, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 47% | 46% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 21% | 3.68 | fair |
| Man United win | 26% | 33% | 3.75 | value: +23% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United −0.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Arsenal −0.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 52% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 48% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Nuno Tavares · Arsenal |
| 31' | 🟨 | Alex Telles · Man United |
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Bukayo Saka · Arsenal |
| 34' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Man United |
| 67' | 🟨 | Granit Xhaka · Arsenal |
| 68' | 🟨 | Nuno Tavares · Arsenal |
| 70' | ⚽ | Granit Xhaka · Arsenal |
| 76' | 🟨 | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 79' | 🟨 | Mohamed Elneny · Arsenal |
| 82' | 🟨 | Victor Lindelöf · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cristiano Ronaldo · Man United |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 538.00 |
| 143.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.40 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1725.57 | 1726.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.84 | -18.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.10 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| league points | 57.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 2.70 | 3.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.25 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 24.61 | 26.96 |
| state index | 0.40 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 258.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |