← Premier League 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Coote
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 59% | 55% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 15% | 3.88 | fair |
| Brighton win | 16% | 31% | 6.43 | value: +98% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal −0.75 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Brighton −0.75 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 50% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 50% | 2.17 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Leandro Trossard · Brighton |
| 35' | 🟨 | Yves Bissouma · Brighton |
| 39' | 🟨 | Martin Ødegaard · Arsenal |
| 40' | 🟨 | Pascal Groß · Brighton |
| 50' | 🟨 | Bukayo Saka · Arsenal |
| 52' | 🟨 | Moisés Caicedo · Brighton |
| 66' | ⚽ | Enock Mwepu · Brighton |
| 82' | 🟨 | Albert Sambi Lokonga · Arsenal |
| 89' | ⚽ | Martin Ødegaard · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Robert Sánchez · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 524.00 | 1074.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.25 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1933.39 | 1737.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.37 | -48.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.70 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| league points | 54.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 4.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.03 | 1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 25.12 | 26.83 |
| state index | 1.05 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 77.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |