← Premier League 2021-22 · Sun, Apr 3, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Atkinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 62% | 58% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 15% | 4.33 | fair |
| Newcastle win | 16% | 27% | 6.45 | value: +74% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle −1 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Tottenham −1 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 62% | 1.81 | value: +13% |
| Under | 46% | 38% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 39' | ⚽ | Fabian Schär · Newcastle |
| 43' | ⚽ | Ben Davies · Tottenham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Bentancur · Tottenham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Joelinton · Newcastle |
| 45' | 🟨 | Allan Saint-Maximin · Newcastle |
| 46' | 🟨 | Dan Burn · Newcastle |
| 48' | ⚽ | Matt Doherty · Tottenham |
| 54' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 63' | ⚽ | Emerson Royal · Tottenham |
| 83' | ⚽ | Steven Bergwijn · Tottenham |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 153.00 |
| 153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1692.39 | 1561.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 45.52 | 23.79 |
| eye test v1 | 1.15 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 65.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.78 |
| league points | 51.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.80 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 16.82 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.33 | -1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.54 | 27.77 |
| state index | 1.29 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 388.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |