← Premier League 2021-22 · Fri, Mar 18, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Friend
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 44% | 35% | 2.29 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.50 | value: +13% |
| Leeds win | 28% | 33% | 3.50 | value: +15% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Wolves −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 59% | 1.74 | value: +3% |
| Over | 45% | 41% | 2.21 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | — · Leeds |
| 6' | 🟨 | Willy Boly · Wolves |
| 26' | ⚽ | Jonny Otto · Wolves |
| 43' | 🟨 | Raúl Jiménez · Wolves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pascal Struijk · Leeds |
| 45' | ⚽ | Francisco Trincão · Wolves |
| 53' | 🟨 | Raúl Jiménez · Wolves |
| 53' | 🟥 | Raúl Jiménez · Wolves |
| 63' | ⚽ | Jack Harrison · Leeds |
| 66' | ⚽ | Rodrigo · Leeds |
| 67' | 🟨 | Rodrigo |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| 74' | 🟨 | Charlie Cresswell · Leeds |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adam Forshaw · Leeds |
| 90' | ⚽ | Luke Ayling · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 290.00 | 45.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 3.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1630.62 | 1510.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.02 | -38.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 46.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.61 |
| league points | 46.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 5.25 | 5.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.22 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 29.06 | 27.45 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.23 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 137.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |