← Premier League 2021-22 · Thu, Mar 10, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 39% | 32% | 2.51 | fair |
| Leeds win | 34% | 36% | 2.86 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.63 | value: +15% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds +0.25 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Aston Villa +0.25 | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 66% | 1.71 | value: +13% |
| Under | 43% | 34% | 2.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 22' | ⚽ | Philippe Coutinho · Aston Villa |
| 45' | 🟨 | Robin Koch · Leeds |
| 47' | 🟨 | Tyrone Mings · Aston Villa |
| 62' | 🟨 | Douglas Luiz · Aston Villa |
| 65' | ⚽ | Matty Cash · Aston Villa |
| 67' | 🟨 | Joe Gelhardt · Leeds |
| 73' | ⚽ | Calum Chambers · Aston Villa |
| 81' | 🟨 | Junior Firpo · Leeds |
| 86' | 🟨 | Daniel James · Leeds |
| 90' | 🟨 | Raphinha · Leeds |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 4 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Elland Road |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 37.00 |
| 129.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.87 | 3.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1523.22 | 1589.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -52.62 | 7.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.20 | 65.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.65 |
| league points | 23.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 5.30 | 5.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.43 | 27.63 |
| state index | -1.37 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 142.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |