← Premier League 2021-22 · Sat, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 39% | 39% | 2.48 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 39% | 3.25 | value: +27% |
| Norwich win | 30% | 22% | 3.22 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich +0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Brentford +0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 56% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 44% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Kristoffer Ajer · Brentford |
| 32' | ⚽ | Ivan Toney · Brentford |
| 40' | 🟨 | Christian Eriksen · Brentford |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ben Gibson · Norwich |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Ivan Toney · Brentford |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Ivan Toney · Brentford |
| 79' | 🟨 | Grant Hanley · Norwich |
| 79' | 🟨 | Pontus Jansson · Brentford |
| 89' | 🟨 | Mads Roerslev · Brentford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bryan Mbeumo · Brentford |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| Teemu Pukki · Norwich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 124.00 | 1251.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1374.20 | 1504.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.28 | -32.90 |
| eye test v1 | -1.62 | -1.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.74 |
| league points | 17.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 32.20 | 37.60 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -14.40 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.96 | -1.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| squad age | 26.12 | 26.24 |
| state index | -0.86 | -1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.05 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 166.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |