← Premier League 2021-22 · Sun, Feb 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 57% | 53% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.27 | fair |
| Leeds win | 20% | 25% | 5.02 | value: +26% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds +1 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Man United +1 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 57% | 1.61 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 43% | 2.48 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | Harry Maguire · Man United |
| 45' | ⚽ | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 53' | ⚽ | Rodrigo · Leeds |
| 54' | 🟨 | Cristiano Ronaldo · Man United |
| 54' | ⚽ | Raphinha · Leeds |
| 61' | 🟨 | Pascal Struijk · Leeds |
| 68' | 🟨 | Luke Ayling · Leeds |
| 70' | ⚽ | Fred · Man United |
| 76' | 🟨 | Adam Forshaw · Leeds |
| 78' | 🟨 | Scott McTominay · Man United |
| 81' | 🟨 | Raphinha · Leeds |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Elland Road |
| 88' | ⚽ | Anthony Elanga · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mateusz Klich · Leeds |
| 90' | 🟨 | Junior Firpo · Leeds |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luke Shaw · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 19.00 |
| 81.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1558.61 | 1751.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.54 | 12.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 43.40 | 66.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.85 |
| league points | 23.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 4.74 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | 0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.84 | 27.18 |
| state index | -0.04 | 1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 59.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |