← Premier League 2021-22 · Sat, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Friend
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Brighton win | 58% | 61% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 17% | 3.70 | fair |
| Burnley win | 15% | 23% | 6.76 | value: +53% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Brighton −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Burnley −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 51% | 1.77 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 49% | 2.14 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | The American Express Community Stadium |