← Premier League 2021-22 · Thu, Feb 10, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: C. Kavanagh
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Liverpool win | 79% | 68% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 15% | 8.00 | value: +19% |
| Leicester win | 7% | 17% | 14.00 | value: +137% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Liverpool −2 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Leicester −2 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 71% | 78% | 1.36 | value: +6% |
| Under | 29% | 22% | 3.37 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 5 |
| 11 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand