← Premier League 2021-22 · Wed, Feb 9, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 50% | 41% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 40% | 3.80 | value: +53% |
| Leeds win | 25% | 19% | 4.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Aston Villa −0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 57% | 1.69 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 43% | 2.27 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Daniel James · Leeds |
| 30' | ⚽ | Philippe Coutinho · Aston Villa |
| 38' | ⚽ | Jacob Ramsey · Aston Villa |
| 43' | ⚽ | Jacob Ramsey · Aston Villa |
| 44' | 🟨 | Stuart Dallas · Leeds |
| 45' | ⚽ | Daniel James · Leeds |
| 63' | ⚽ | Diego Llorente · Leeds |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ezri Konsa · Aston Villa |
| 80' | 🟨 | Daniel James · Leeds |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ezri Konsa · Aston Villa |
| 87' | 🟥 | Ezri Konsa · Aston Villa |
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 11 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matty Cash · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rodrigo · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 100.00 |
| 8.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1582.17 | 1573.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.39 | -5.84 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 44.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.60 |
| league points | 26.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 18.31 | 18.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.02 | 26.81 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 142.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |