← Premier League 2021-22 · Sun, Jan 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Friend
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 61% | 72% | 1.58 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 23% | 16% | 4.27 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 16% | 13% | 6.26 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace +1 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Liverpool +1 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 62% | 1.81 | value: +11% |
| Under | 47% | 38% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Virgil van Dijk · Liverpool |
| 32' | ⚽ | Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain · Liverpool |
| 49' | 🟨 | Conor Gallagher · Crystal Palace |
| 55' | ⚽ | Odsonne Édouard · Crystal Palace |
| 61' | 🟨 | Will Hughes · Crystal Palace |
| 81' | 🟨 | Roberto Firmino · Liverpool |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Schlupp · Crystal Palace |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) | Fabinho · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joel Ward · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 206.00 | 1767.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1770.51 | 2062.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.12 | -14.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | 1.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 66.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| league points | 24.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 8.75 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 2.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 11.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 19.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | 1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 6.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 25.38 | 27.80 |
| state index | 0.36 | 1.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 298.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |