← Premier League 2021-22 · Sat, Jan 22, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 37% | 39% | 2.69 | value: +6% |
| Everton win | 36% | 23% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 38% | 3.63 | value: +36% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Everton +0 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Aston Villa +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 44% | 1.94 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 56% | 1.98 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | André Gomes · Everton |
| 45' | ⚽ | Emiliano Buendía · Aston Villa |
| 50' | 🟨 | Dominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton |
| 58' | 🟨 | Yerry Mina · Everton |
| 68' | 🟨 | Emiliano Martínez · Aston Villa |
| 75' | 🟨 | Matty Cash · Aston Villa |
| 82' | 🟨 | Allan · Everton |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ben Godfrey · Everton |
| 86' | 🟨 | Tyrone Mings · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | Danny Ings · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 21.00 | 82.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1545.93 | 1571.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.11 | -9.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | — |
| league points | 19.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.32 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.58 | 26.15 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.07 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 126.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |