← Premier League 2021-22 · Tue, Dec 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 46% | 36% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 47% | 3.50 | value: +64% ⚠ |
| Southampton win | 25% | 17% | 3.77 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton +0.5 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Tottenham +0.5 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 57% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 43% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker-Peters · Southampton |
| 25' | ⚽ | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
| 27' | 🟨 | Mohammed Salisu · Southampton |
| 39' | 🟨 | Mohammed Salisu · Southampton |
| 39' | 🟥 | Mohammed Salisu · Southampton |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sergio Reguilón · Tottenham |
| 51' | 🟨 | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 69' | 🟨 | Harry Winks · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 21 |
| 2 | On target | 11 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 1123.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 3.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1540.30 | 1668.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.73 | 10.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.45 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | 0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| league points | 20.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.17 | 0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.58 | 26.49 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.21 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 120.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |