← Premier League 2021-22 · Sun, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Moss
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Tottenham win | 56% | 59% | 1.75 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 19% | 3.87 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 19% | 22% | 5.25 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Crystal Palace −0.75 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Tottenham −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 50% | 54% | 1.95 | value: +6% |
| Over | 50% | 46% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |