← Premier League 2021-22 · Wed, Dec 15, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 48% | 54% | 2.05 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.49 | fair |
| Southampton win | 24% | 19% | 4.08 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace −0.25 | 55% | 1.74 |
| Southampton −0.25 | 45% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 60% | 1.85 | value: +11% |
| Over | 47% | 40% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 25' | 🟨 | Marc Guéhi · Crystal Palace |
| 32' | ⚽ | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
| 36' | ⚽ | Armando Broja · Southampton |
| 65' | ⚽ | Jordan Ayew · Crystal Palace |
| 67' | 🟨 | Valentino Livramento · Southampton |
| 73' | 🟨 | James Tomkins · Crystal Palace |
| 84' | 🟨 | Mohammed Salisu · Southampton |
| 88' | 🟨 | Lyanco · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Willy Caballero · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 167.00 | 1110.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1568.39 | 1521.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.21 | -23.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.70 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.59 |
| league points | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 3.13 | 4.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.09 | 25.91 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 106.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |