← Premier League 2021-22 · Wed, Dec 1, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 70% | 61% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 26% | 5.18 | value: +36% |
| Everton win | 11% | 12% | 9.13 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Everton +1.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Liverpool +1.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 67% | 1.65 | value: +10% |
| Under | 41% | 33% | 2.36 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Jordan Henderson · Liverpool |
| 16' | 🟨 | Andros Townsend · Everton |
| 19' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 31' | 🟨 | Allan · Everton |
| 38' | ⚽ | Demarai Gray · Everton |
| 39' | 🟨 | Thiago Alcântara · Liverpool |
| 40' | 🟨 | Lucas Digne · Everton |
| 44' | 🟨 | Demarai Gray · Everton |
| 63' | 🟨 | Andy Robertson · Liverpool |
| 64' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 79' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| Diogo Jota · Liverpool |
| 80' | 🟨 | Virgil van Dijk · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 183.00 | 1714.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 3.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1573.79 | 1852.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.52 | 15.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | 1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.75 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| league points | 15.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 63.60 |
| rest days | 3.26 | 4.22 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 2.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | 1.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 28.14 | 27.97 |
| state index | -0.66 | 1.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 0.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |