← Premier League 2021-22 · Sat, Nov 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 36% | 35% | 2.74 | fair |
| Burnley win | 34% | 35% | 2.86 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace +0 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Burnley +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 53% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 47% | 2.34 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
| 19' | ⚽ | Ben Mee · Burnley |
| 22' | 🟨 | James Tarkowski · Burnley |
| 22' | 🟨 | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 27' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Burnley |
| 36' | ⚽ | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
| 41' | ⚽ | Marc Guéhi · Crystal Palace |
| 49' | ⚽ | Maxwel Cornet · Burnley |
| 59' | 🟨 | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ashley Westwood · Burnley |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 15 | Shots | 18 |
| 9 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| 🟨 |
| Michael Olise · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 3337.00 | 142.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1529.00 | 1578.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.85 | 45.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 69.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| league points | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.44 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.84 | 27.85 |
| state index | 0.05 | 0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.95 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 302.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |