← Premier League 2021-22 · Sun, Oct 3, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 37% | 35% | 2.70 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 34% | 36% | 2.87 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester +0 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Crystal Palace +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 57% | 1.78 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 43% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Ryan Bertrand · Leicester |
| 31' | ⚽ | Kelechi Iheanacho · Leicester |
| 37' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 46' | 🟨 | Youri Tielemans · Leicester |
| 61' | ⚽ | Michael Olise · Crystal Palace |
| 72' | ⚽ | Jeffrey Schlupp · Crystal Palace |
| 78' | 🟨 | Joachim Andersen · Crystal Palace |
| 83' | 🟨 | James McArthur · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harvey Barnes · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 94.00 | 952.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1533.23 | 1619.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.13 | -28.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.20 | 48.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| league points | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 5.75 | 2.84 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.71 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | 1.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.79 | 25.78 |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 153.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |