← Premier League 2021-22 · Sat, Sep 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Watford win | 45% | 33% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 45% | 3.57 | value: +61% ⚠ |
| Newcastle win | 27% | 22% | 3.59 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Watford −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Newcastle −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 50% | 37% | 1.95 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 63% | 1.95 | value: +23% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 19 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand