← Premier League 2021-22 · Sat, Sep 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Kavanagh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 58% | 51% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 31% | 3.90 | value: +19% |
| Burnley win | 17% | 18% | 5.80 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Burnley −0.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 52% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 48% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Jannik Vestergaard · Leicester |
| 12' | ⚽ (og) | Jamie Vardy · Burnley |
| 37' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 40' | ⚽ | Maxwel Cornet · Burnley |
| 45' | 🟨 | Maxwel Cornet · Burnley |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ashley Westwood · Burnley |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jóhann Guðmundsson · Burnley |
| 77' | 🟨 | Harvey Barnes · Leicester |
| 85' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 90' | 🟨 | James Tarkowski · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 944.00 | 3281.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 1.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1635.21 | 1506.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.70 | -28.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 65.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| league points | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | — |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | -1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.53 | 29.02 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.93 | -1.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 148.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |