← Premier League 2021-22 · Sat, Aug 21, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Dean
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Liverpool win | 77% | 80% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 9% | 6.75 | fair |
| Burnley win | 8% | 11% | 13.50 | value: +55% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Liverpool −1.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Burnley −1.75 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 66% | 52% | 1.47 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 48% | 2.79 | value: +35% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand