← Premier League 2020-21 · Tue, May 18, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: M. Dean
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 57% | 58% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 31% | 3.88 | value: +22% |
| Leicester win | 18% | 11% | 5.45 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Leicester −0.75 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 52% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 48% | 2.19 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Ayoze Pérez · Leicester |
| 47' | ⚽ | Antonio Rüdiger · Chelsea |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Jorginho · Chelsea |
| 76' | ⚽ | Kelechi Iheanacho · Leicester |
| 82' | 🟨 | Wesley Fofana · Leicester |
| 87' | 🟨 | César Azpilicueta · Chelsea |
| 89' | 🟨 | Wilfred Ndidi · Leicester |
| 90' | 🟨 | Edouard Mendy · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ricardo Pereira · Leicester |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Amartey · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 137.00 | 814.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.66 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.76 |
| elo | 1931.54 | 1871.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.86 | 2.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.61 | 1.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| league points | 64.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 64.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 11.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.48 | 1.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 26.08 | 26.34 |
| state index | 1.22 | 1.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.00 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 142.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |