← Premier League 2020-21 · Sun, May 16, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: D. Coote
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 42% | 35% | 2.31 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 31% | 22% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 43% | 3.62 | value: +56% ⚠ |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Aston Villa +0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 51% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 49% | 2.12 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | John McGinn · Aston Villa |
| 32' | ⚽ | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
| 34' | ⚽ | Anwar El Ghazi · Aston Villa |
| 50' | 🟨 | John McGinn · Aston Villa |
| 73' | 🟨 | Joel Ward · Crystal Palace |
| 76' | ⚽ | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 82' | 🟨 | Cheikhou Kouyaté · Crystal Palace |
| 84' | ⚽ | Tyrick Mitchell · Crystal Palace |
| 86' | 🟨 | Kortney Hause · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 23 | Shots | 19 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 23 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 1353.00 | 958.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 3.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1732.23 | 1782.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.50 | -3.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.69 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.20 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| league points | 41.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 4.66 | 2.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.05 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 28.88 | 25.88 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 174.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |