← Premier League 2020-21 · Fri, May 14, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Friend
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 73% | 81% | 1.35 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 17% | 11% | 5.89 | fair |
| Newcastle win | 10% | 9% | 11.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man City +1.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Newcastle +1.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 65% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 33% | 35% | 2.98 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Emil Krafth · Newcastle |
| 36' | 🟨 | Matt Ritchie · Newcastle |
| 39' | ⚽ | João Cancelo · Man City |
| 42' | ⚽ | Ferran Torres · Man City |
| 44' | 🟨 | Rodri · Man City |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Joelinton · Newcastle |
| 56' | 🟨 | João Cancelo · Man City |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jonjo Shelvey · Newcastle |
| 62' | ⚽ | Joe Willock · Newcastle |
| 64' | ⚽ | Ferran Torres · Man City |
| 66' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 683.00 | 1778.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 1.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.26 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1754.36 | 2093.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.91 | -17.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| league points | 39.00 | 80.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 89.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.80 | 63.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 2.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.80 | 10.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | 2.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.22 | 26.11 |
| state index | 0.70 | 1.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.19 | 0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 170.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |