← Premier League 2020-21 · Tue, May 11, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 51% | 37% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 32% | 3.87 | value: +24% |
| Crystal Palace win | 23% | 30% | 4.28 | value: +30% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Crystal Palace −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 47% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 53% | 2.07 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
| 19' | ⚽ | Danny Ings · Southampton |
| 44' | 🟨 | Jan Bednarek · Southampton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jordan Ayew · Crystal Palace |
| 48' | ⚽ | Che Adams · Southampton |
| 54' | 🟨 | Jannik Vestergaard · Southampton |
| 75' | ⚽ | Danny Ings · Southampton |
| 77' | 🟨 | Cheikhou Kouyaté · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 12 | Corners | 8 |
| 20 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 892.00 | 1348.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.28 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1741.52 | 1744.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.26 | -4.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.66 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 67.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| league points | 37.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.22 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.98 | 29.41 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 106.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |