← Premier League 2020-21 · Sat, Apr 17, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: K. Friend
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 44% | 37% | 2.22 | fair |
| Newcastle win | 28% | 35% | 3.48 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham +0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Newcastle +0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 47% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 53% | 2.01 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Craig Dawson · West Ham |
| 16' | 🟨 | Jonjo Shelvey · Newcastle |
| 36' | 🟨 | Craig Dawson · West Ham |
| 36' | 🟥 | Craig Dawson · West Ham |
| 36' | ⚽ (og) | Issa Diop · Newcastle |
| 41' | ⚽ | Joelinton · Newcastle |
| 73' | ⚽ | Issa Diop · West Ham |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Jesse Lingard · West Ham |
| 82' | ⚽ | Joe Willock · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jacob Murphy · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 16 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.67 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.85 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
| coach days | 656.00 | 503.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.28 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1723.98 | 1876.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.84 | 23.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| league points | 32.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 35.80 |
| rest days | 6.02 | 5.93 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | -1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.91 | 28.58 |
| state index | 0.35 | 0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -1.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 398.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |