← Premier League 2020-21 · Sun, Apr 11, 01:05 PM UTC · ref: M. Dean
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 41% | 29% | 2.42 | fair |
| West Ham win | 30% | 35% | 3.25 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 29% | 36% | 3.31 | value: +19% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Leicester +0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 52% | 1.71 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 48% | 2.24 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Tomáš Souček · West Ham |
| 29' | ⚽ | Jesse Lingard · West Ham |
| 30' | 🟨 | Aaron Cresswell · West Ham |
| 33' | 🟨 | Ricardo Pereira · Leicester |
| 44' | ⚽ | Jesse Lingard · West Ham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Wesley Fofana · Leicester |
| 46' | 🟨 | Wilfred Ndidi · Leicester |
| 48' | ⚽ | Jarrod Bowen · West Ham |
| 70' | ⚽ | Kelechi Iheanacho · Leicester |
| 90' | 🟨 | Arthur Masuaku · West Ham |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 9 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| Kelechi Iheanacho · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 497.00 | 777.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1867.56 | 1877.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.08 | -12.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.90 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| league points | 52.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.00 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 5.74 | 7.86 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | 1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.85 | 27.74 |
| state index | 0.96 | 0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.31 | 1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 144.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |