β Premier League 2020-21 Β· Sun, Apr 11, 11:00 AM UTC Β· ref: A. Taylor
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Burnley win | 42% | 36% | 2.27 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.44 | fair |
| Newcastle win | 29% | 35% | 3.43 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Burnley β0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Newcastle β0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 56% | 1.90 | value: +6% |
| Over | 49% | 44% | 2.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 13 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand