← Premier League 2020-21 · Sat, Apr 10, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Marriner
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Man City win | 69% | 65% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 18% | 5.32 | fair |
| Leeds win | 12% | 16% | 8.50 | value: +40% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Leeds −1.5 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Man City −1.5 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 61% | 65% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 35% | 2.52 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 29 | Shots | 2 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand