← Premier League 2020-21 · Mon, Apr 5, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 36% | 33% | 2.74 | fair |
| Wolves win | 33% | 44% | 2.91 | value: +29% |
| Draw | 30% | 23% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham +0 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Wolves +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 59% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 41% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Craig Dawson · West Ham |
| 6' | ⚽ | Jesse Lingard · West Ham |
| 10' | 🟨 | Issa Diop · West Ham |
| 14' | ⚽ | Pablo Fornals · West Ham |
| 38' | ⚽ | Jarrod Bowen · West Ham |
| 44' | ⚽ | Leander Dendoncker · Wolves |
| 68' | ⚽ | Fábio Silva · Wolves |
| 85' | 🟨 | Rúben Neves · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jesse Lingard · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tomáš Souček · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 1435.00 | 491.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1817.67 | 1856.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.76 | 11.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 70.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| league points | 35.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 35.20 |
| rest days | 20.97 | 15.18 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | -1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.88 | 28.20 |
| state index | 0.45 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 188.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |