← Premier League 2020-21 · Sat, Apr 3, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: D. Coote
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 76% | 78% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 16% | 6.00 | fair |
| West Brom win | 8% | 6% | 13.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom −1.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Chelsea −1.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 62% | 1.93 | value: +21% |
| Under | 50% | 38% | 1.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Thiago Silva · Chelsea |
| 14' | 🟨 | Mbaye Diagne · West Brom |
| 27' | ⚽ | Christian Pulišić · Chelsea |
| 29' | 🟨 | Thiago Silva · Chelsea |
| 29' | 🟥 | Thiago Silva · Chelsea |
| 45' | ⚽ | Matheus Pereira · West Brom |
| 45' | ⚽ | Matheus Pereira · West Brom |
| 63' | ⚽ | Callum Robinson · West Brom |
| 66' | 🟨 | Mateo Kovačić · Chelsea |
| 68' | ⚽ | Mbaye Diagne · West Brom |
| 71' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| Mason Mount · Chelsea |
| 90' | ⚽ | Callum Robinson · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 92.00 | 123.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1937.81 | 1642.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.72 | 4.55 |
| eye test v1 | 1.01 | -1.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.73 |
| league points | 51.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 20.96 | 20.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 0.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.59 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.37 | 26.24 |
| state index | 1.61 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.98 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 166.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |