← Premier League 2020-21 · Sun, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Moss
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 45% | 37% | 2.18 | fair |
| West Ham win | 28% | 41% | 3.54 | value: +45% |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.56 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| West Ham +0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 48% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 52% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Jesse Lingard · West Ham |
| 17' | ⚽ | Jarrod Bowen · West Ham |
| 32' | ⚽ | Tomáš Souček · West Ham |
| 38' | ⚽ (og) | Tomáš Souček · Arsenal |
| 59' | 🟨 | Vladimír Coufal · West Ham |
| 61' | ⚽ (og) | Craig Dawson · Arsenal |
| 82' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Arsenal |
| 88' | 🟨 | Michail Antonio · West Ham |
| 89' | 🟨 | Aaron Cresswell · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alexandre Lacazette · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 476.00 | 140.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1857.65 | 1893.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.54 | 14.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.60 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.20 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| league points | 48.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.00 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 6.82 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.00 | 1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.06 | 26.79 |
| state index | 1.15 | 1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 8.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |