← Premier League 2020-21 · Sat, Mar 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 46% | 37% | 2.19 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 40% | 3.40 | value: +35% |
| Sheffield United win | 26% | 23% | 3.80 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United +0.5 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Southampton +0.5 | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 57% | 1.70 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 43% | 2.27 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Ethan Ampadu · Sheffield United |
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
| 36' | 🟨 | Jayden Bogle · Sheffield United |
| 49' | ⚽ | Che Adams · Southampton |
| 59' | 🟨 | Nathan Tella · Southampton |
| 71' | 🟨 | Stuart Armstrong · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oliver McBurnie · Sheffield United |
| 90' | 🟨 | John Fleck · Sheffield United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jannik Vestergaard · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sheffield United | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Bramall Lane |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 5.00 | 826.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1685.76 | 1760.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.82 | -40.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.51 |
| league points | 14.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 4.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.52 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.12 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.37 | 26.99 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 274.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |