← Premier League 2020-21 · Mon, Feb 8, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Marriner
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Leeds win | 54% | 58% | 1.80 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.75 | value: +12% |
| Crystal Palace win | 21% | 12% | 5.13 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Crystal Palace −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Leeds −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 50% | 63% | 1.93 | value: +22% |
| Under | 50% | 37% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand