← Premier League 2020-21 · Tue, Dec 29, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Mason
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Leeds win | 53% | 52% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 16% | 4.04 | fair |
| West Brom win | 23% | 33% | 4.35 | value: +43% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| West Brom +0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Leeds +0.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 58% | 63% | 1.68 | value: +5% |
| Under | 42% | 37% | 2.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 4 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand