← Premier League 2020-21 · Sat, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 53% | 43% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.93 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 22% | 33% | 4.47 | value: +48% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Crystal Palace −0.5 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 57% | 1.76 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 43% | 2.17 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Bertrand Traoré · Aston Villa |
| 39' | 🟨 | Tyrone Mings · Aston Villa |
| 39' | 🟨 | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jack Grealish · Aston Villa |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tyrone Mings · Aston Villa |
| 45' | 🟥 | Tyrone Mings · Aston Villa |
| 56' | 🟨 | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 66' | ⚽ | Kortney Hause · Aston Villa |
| 68' | 🟨 | Joel Ward · Crystal Palace |
| 76' | ⚽ | Anwar El Ghazi · Aston Villa |
| 83' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 13 |
| 10 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| 🟨 |
| Eberechi Eze · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 817.00 | 1212.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1527.42 | 1542.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.80 | 0.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.30 | 70.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.65 |
| league points | 22.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 5.82 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.95 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.46 | 30.05 |
| state index | 0.33 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 174.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |