← Premier League 2020-21 · Sun, Dec 20, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: M. Atkinson
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Aston Villa win | 56% | 55% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.17 | fair |
| West Brom win | 20% | 23% | 5.08 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Aston Villa +0.75 | 52% | 1.91 |
| West Brom +0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 57% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 43% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 1 | Shots | 19 |
| 1 | On target | 10 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand