← Premier League 2020-21 · Thu, Dec 17, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 66% | 57% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 30% | 4.75 | value: +42% |
| Sheffield United win | 13% | 13% | 7.88 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United +1.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Man United +1.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 54% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 46% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | David McGoldrick · Sheffield United |
| 26' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 33' | ⚽ | Anthony Martial · Man United |
| 51' | 🟨 | Phil Jagielka · Sheffield United |
| 51' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 70' | 🟨 | John Egan · Sheffield United |
| 87' | ⚽ | David McGoldrick · Sheffield United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Robinson · Sheffield United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paul Pogba · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dean Henderson · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sheffield United | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Bramall Lane |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 1691.00 | 747.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 3.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1467.60 | 1767.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.83 | 33.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.99 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.53 |
| league points | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 4.33 | 5.10 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.08 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.12 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 28.09 | 25.63 |
| state index | -1.61 | 1.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 55.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.00 |