← Premier League 2020-21 · Wed, Dec 16, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 61% | 63% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 9% | 4.54 | fair |
| Newcastle win | 17% | 28% | 5.75 | value: +61% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle −1 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Leeds −1 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 61% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 39% | 2.56 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Jeff Hendrick · Newcastle |
| 35' | ⚽ | Patrick Bamford · Leeds |
| 37' | 🟨 | Mateusz Klich · Leeds |
| 48' | 🟨 | Kalvin Phillips · Leeds |
| 50' | 🟨 | Isaac Hayden · Newcastle |
| 61' | ⚽ | Rodrigo · Leeds |
| 65' | ⚽ | Ciaran Clark · Newcastle |
| 68' | 🟨 | Raphinha · Leeds |
| 77' | ⚽ | Stuart Dallas · Leeds |
| 85' | ⚽ | Ezgjan Alioski · Leeds |
| 88' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 10 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Elland Road |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 929.00 | 534.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1452.60 | 1557.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.33 | 13.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.60 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| league points | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 4.92 | 4.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.53 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.43 | -0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.83 | 27.40 |
| state index | -0.56 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.88 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 133.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |