← Premier League 2020-21 · Tue, Dec 15, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Man City win | 88% | 89% | 1.10 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 7% | 12.60 | fair |
| West Brom win | 4% | 3% | 29.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Man City −2.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| West Brom −2.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 75% | 45% | 1.28 | fair |
| Under | 25% | 55% | 3.83 | value: +112% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 26 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 5 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand