← Premier League 2020-21 · Sun, Dec 6, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 39% | 36% | 2.50 | fair |
| West Brom win | 32% | 30% | 3.14 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.40 | value: +14% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Crystal Palace +0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 57% | 1.88 | value: +8% |
| Over | 48% | 43% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ (og) | Darnell Furlong · Crystal Palace |
| 17' | 🟨 | Romaine Sawyers · West Brom |
| 30' | ⚽ | Conor Gallagher · West Brom |
| 34' | 🟥 | Matheus Pereira · West Brom |
| 49' | 🟨 | James McArthur · Crystal Palace |
| 55' | ⚽ | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 58' | 🟨 | Conor Gallagher · West Brom |
| 59' | ⚽ | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
| 68' | ⚽ | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 82' | ⚽ | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
| 88' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| 🟨 |
| Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 5.00 | 1192.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.40 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1685.52 | 1738.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.30 | -10.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 71.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| league points | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.67 | 8.67 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.81 | 30.35 |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 178.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |