← Premier League 2020-21 · Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 37% | 36% | 2.69 | fair |
| Southampton win | 36% | 40% | 2.73 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.56 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Southampton +0 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 58% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 42% | 2.29 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
| 20' | ⚽ | Jannik Vestergaard · Southampton |
| 33' | ⚽ | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
| 43' | 🟨 | Matty Cash · Aston Villa |
| 45' | ⚽ | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
| 58' | ⚽ | Danny Ings · Southampton |
| 62' | ⚽ | Tyrone Mings · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Diallo · Southampton |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jack Grealish · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| coach days | 762.00 | 701.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1492.65 | 1604.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 55.93 | 23.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.61 |
| league points | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 8.71 | 6.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.29 | 27.32 |
| state index | 0.72 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.06 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 181.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |